Convexity of ruin probability and optimal dividend strategies for a general Levy process

In this paper, we consider the optimal dividends problem for a company whose cash reserves follow a general Levy process with certain positive jumps and arbitrary negative jumps. The objective is to find a policy which maximizes the expected discounted dividends until the time of ruin. Under appropriate conditions, we appeal to very recent results in the theory of potential analysis of subordinators to obtain the convexity properties of probability of ruin. We present conditions under which the optimal dividend strategy, among all admissible ones, takes the form of a barrier strategy.Comment: 19 pages, corrected some typo

Reconstructing propagation networks with natural diversity and identifying hidden sources

Our ability to uncover complex network structure and dynamics from data is fundamental to understanding and controlling collective dynamics in complex systems. Despite recent progress in this area, reconstructing networks with stochastic dynamical processes from limited time series remains to be an outstanding problem. Here we develop a framework based on compressed sensing to reconstruct complex networks on which stochastic spreading dynamics take place. We apply the methodology to a large number of model and real networks, finding that a full reconstruction of inhomogeneous interactions can be achieved from small amounts of polarized (binary) data, a virtue of compressed sensing. Further, we demonstrate that a hidden source that triggers the spreading process but is externally inaccessible can be ascertained and located with high confidence in the absence of direct routes of propagation from it. Our approach thus establishes a paradigm for tracing and controlling epidemic invasion and information diffusion in complex networked systems.Comment: 20 pages and 5 figures. For Supplementary information, please see http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2014/140711/ncomms5323/full/ncomms5323.html#